The Current Indian Economy: Walking the tightrope…

My following Article was published by Financial World Newspaper, a newspaper based in Delhi brought under the editorial leadership of Tehelka.

The Article was also carried by Issues and Concern magazine..

Article:

As the cliché goes ‘Ignorance is Bliss’, Indian policy makers need Dr.Nouriel Roubini, popularly known as Dr.Doom, who predicted the 2008 meltdown, to wake them out of their slumber and get their acts together.

Planning Commission deputy chairman Montek singh Ahluwalia, said he is not expecting the economy to grow at 8 per cent during this year, sharply lower than the 9 per cent rate it had forecast first in July 2010 and reaffirmed in January 2011. The US is struggling with its deficits and credit ratings while the eurozone is precariously poised to default by one of its peripheral countries. The lowering of the US sovereign rating from AAA to AA+ sent shock waves across the global stock markets, the scene is redolent with the grim affairs of 2009. With the downgrading of the world’s economic super power, the experts, with their daggers out, are predicting a second wave of economic slowdown across the globe including India.

Inflation is the biggest headwind for the Indian economy as increasing income, coupled with more government spending and rising crude prices, will keep pressure on the price front, Fuel alone accounts for over 15 percent of the headline inflation index (Wholesale Price Index), according to the ‘Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific’ by Escap, a $10 increase in oil prices will raise inflation by 0.52%, a $25 increase in oil prices increase inflation by almost 1.5%, thereby neutralizing Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s efforts to contain inflation. This doesn’t bode well for the inflation which has been dangerously close to a double-digit figure for almost one year now.

The RBI’s attempts to tackle inflation, through monetary policy, fundamental mistakes in our fiscal policies, is leading to all sorts of further problems for the economy in the form of higher interest rates meant to suppress demand. The RBI has tightened policy 11 times since February 2010 owing to high inflation; this sledge hammer approach erodes the very cornerstone on which our economy flourishes – growth.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are likely to infuse only $14 billion (PMEAC Report) into the Indian stock markets during this fiscal year as Indian stocks lose their sheen. This $14 billion is less than half of the $30.3 billion FIIs pumped into the country in the previous fiscal. The automobile sector is an indicator of the robustness of an economy. For long, India’s auto sector has been roaring like never before. But, for the first time in 30 months, Indian vehicle sales dipped by over 15 per cent (PMEAC Report), in July, indicating a slowdown in the economy. Despite all the above indicators which suggest that our economy may hit a black spot there is a silver lining.

The speed at which India’s exports grew in the period that followed the financial meltdown in the West is astonishing. This was possible on account of the change in the composition and the direction of India’s trade. The US and EU which used to account for 46 per cent of India’s exports in 1995, accounted for 32 per cent of exports in 2009(PMEAC Report).

Stunted growth in the west is likely to have a major significance here in India, albeit a positive one i.e. the pressure on commodity prices might ease. Crude oil had fallen to $99.68 on August 8, down from a peak of above $127 in April 2011. On the one hand, if commodity prices soften further or are maintained around the present levels because of growth deceleration in advanced economies, a potential source of inflation in the Indian context might ease.

India attracted the highest ever foreign portfolio inflows in the year 2010 just after the global meltdown. One of the key reasons for the northward surge in capital flows during 2010 was the loose monetary policy being maintained by many central banks in the developed world. Given the fragile economic conditions in the rich world, the loose money policy is unlikely to reverse any time soon and therefore capital flows will continue to remain strong

During the previous global recession, the Indian economy posted a respectable growth of 6.9 per cent in 2008-09. This was possible because growth is fuelled by strong domestic demand. The forces driving domestic demand continue to be in good form in 2011-12, despite the central bank trying hard to contain demand by raising interest rates. We are lucky in that we have a predominantly well cushioned economy, we don’t depend upon others for our growth.

The Indian economy is walking a tightrope not because of the impending global slowdown, but due to the policy paralysis. Policymaking has hit a deadlock in the absence of strong leadership in the government. The government is occupied with issues such as Anna Hazare, Corruption scams or simply fending off the Opposition. For far too long the government is busy defending itself from various attacks and engaged in fruitless rhetoric, rather than undertaking big ticket reforms and taking the country forward. Crucial bills such as the DTC and the GST are embroiled in a political brinkmanship. Key infrastructural reforms, the multi brand retail FDI, mining applications, land and environmental approvals are perennially in the queue on the government’s to-do list. In the past, experts have written obituaries of our economy, but we survived - not just survived but also helped others on our way. Our economy is not so tenuous that every time the US sneezes we catch a cold! We may be growing slower than expected or rather, at a lower rate than we fancied, but definitely recession isn’t staring us in the face anywhere in the near future.

We have a unique opportunity of taking advantage of the current uncertain global environment and differentiating ourselves from the lot, but the onus lies largely with the country’s leadership.

Let the Race Begin ( My Article In DAWN Newspaper)

This article is the same one which i had submitted to Governance Now magazine, but i have written in more detail about the features of Google+ in this article. This article was accepted by International Newspaper DAWN, you can find it here:

http://www.dawn.com/2011/07/04/let-the-race-begin%E2%80%A6.html

Article:

A new kid on the social networking scene appeared last Tuesday, ambitiously named Google+, Google’s long expected shot at taking on Facebook. This is one race that promises to be as exciting as any Hollywood action packed flick. It’s the race between the two iconic technological giants of our times.

At first, it looks like Google+ has cleverly borrowed some very good ideas from the reigning king of social networks, Facebook, but in addition offers some exciting features for sharing content and managing privacy. With a reported 700 million users worldwide, Face book’s privacy practices are the leading issues facing the company and Google is going directly after that point with Google+. That won’t likely be enough, however, to win the social media battle.

But going by the series of reviews by the critics all round the world it looks like Google has the capability to offer a solid alternative to Facebook.

Like Facebook, Google+ allows netizens to share photos, messages and comments in addition to a video chat function which is absent in Facebook. Google, whose previous attempts ended in failure with both Google wave and Google buzz proving unpopular with the users, is banking on four special features of Google+ that the company says will resonate well with the social networking audience.

1. Circle: A functionality that allows you to group your friends into individual circle/group. You can share different content with different circles. More interestingly, in these circles you can define who gets to see what kind of updates. Google says, “You share different things with different people. So sharing the right stuff with the right people shouldn’t be a hassle.” So in short Google+ gives you the option of separating your Friends from Just Friends, Relatives, Family and of course your boss.

2. Sparks: This functionality connects individuals on the network to others with common interests. This feature lets you choose from a list of interests or to enter your own specific interest. It then does what Google does the best, it gathers all relevant content from the web for that topic and allows you to control which circle views what content. It’s obvious that Google will try to leverage its core competency i.e. Search in its fight against Facebook.

3. Huddle: A type of group messaging. It turns different conversations into one simple group chat, so everyone gets on the same page all at once.

4. Hangouts: Now this is one feature which could be a potential Facebook killer. A multi-user video conference, a sort of group video chat. You can create hangouts of up to 10 people. By the looks of it, it gives me a feeling that this could revolutionise the way people will use social networking sites.

Besides the above listed four features, there are other features like Stream which is akin to your Facebook newsfeeds. Another important feature is the instant upload. The photos and videos from your mobile can be shared instantly. You can take a photo and it uploads to your Picasa or YouTube account and then you can share those photos and videos via Google+ to specific “circles.”

One critic said that “if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it’s probably a duck. And Google+ looks like and quacks like Facebook in several ways.” Google dubs Google+ as a project rather than a product, stressing “it’s part of making Google itself more social rather that being a standalone social network”, says the company.

So what is it in Google+ that augurs well for its survival against Facebook? If you have to take my opinion, then it is the ability of Google+ to become a one stop shop for all that netizens crave online using different URLs. Imagine a social network with Google search, Gmail, Picasa, Google videos, Youtube, Google Maps all integrated on a single platform, providing you a wholesome package of all your daily online needs. With all those great services and now a tightly integrated social networking platform under one roof, who needs Facebook?

Who will win the race? The answer to this question lies in the future. In fact the race hasn’t even started still; apparently Google+ is not even launched worldwide. But the critics are already out with their daggers. It will also be interesting to see the maneuvers by Facebook in response to Google+. Will Google+ prove to be a Facebook killer? Your guess is as good as mine.

Let the Race Begin (My Article In Governance Now Magazine)

My Following article was accepted by Governance Now magazine, you can find it here:

http://www.gov2.in/stories/let-race-begin

My Article:

A new kid on the social networking scene appeared on Tuesday, ambitiously named Google+. Google’s long expected shot at taking on Facebook. This is one race that promises to be as exciting as any Hollywood action packed flick. It’s the race between the two iconic technological giants of our times.

At first, it looks like Google+ has cleverly borrowed some very good ideas from the reigning king of social networks, Facebook, but in addition offers some exciting features for sharing content and managing privacy. With a reported 700 million users worldwide, Facebook’s privacy practices are the leading issues facing the company and google is going directly after that point with Google+. That won't likely be enough, however, to win the social media battle.

But going by the series of reviews by the critics all round the world looks like Google has the capability to offer a solid alternative to Facebook. Like Facebook, Google+ allows netizens to share photos, messages and comments in addition to a video chat function which is absent in facebook. Google whose previous attempts ended in failure with both Google wave and Google buzz proving unpopular with the users is banking on four special features of Google+ that the company says will resonate well with the social networking audience. (1)Circle: A functionality that allows you to group your friends in to individual circle/group. You can share different content with different circles. (2)Sparks: This functionality connects individuals on the network to others with common interests. (3)Huddle: A type of group messaging. (4)Hangouts: A multi-user video conference.

One critic said that “if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it’s probably a duck. And Google+ looks like and quacks like Facebook in several ways.” Google dubs Google+ as a project rather than a product, stressing “it’s part of making google itself more social rather that being a standalone social network”, says the company. So what is it in Google+ that augurs well for its survival against Facebook?

If you have to take my opinion, then it is the ability of Google+ to become a one stop shop for all that netizens crave online using different URLs. Imagine a social network with Google search, Gmail, Picasa, Google videos, Youtube, Google Maps all integrated on a single platform providing you a wholesome package of all your daily online needs. With all those great services and now a tightly integrated social networking platform under one roof, who needs Facebook? Who will win the race?

The answer to this question lies in the future. In fact the race hasn’t even started still; apparently Google+ is not even launched worldwide. But the critics are already out with their daggers. It will also be interesting to see the maneuvers by Facebook in response to Google+. Will Google+ prove to be a Facebook killer? Your guess is as good as mine.

Why is the Government of India right in not issuing the Notification to the Drafting committee.

On 19th October 1952 a man named Potti Sriramulu began a fast unto death in madras (Chennai) demanding a separate state of Andra for the telgu speaking people. Potti Sriramulu like Anna Hazare was a Gandhian. Nehru ignored his demands and paid no attention to his fast. For Nehru the idea of a United India in the early years of Independence was much greater than the idea of states divided on linguistic patterns. As weeks passed by, the support for Potti Sriramulu grew, hartals were called in many towns and cities, trains hijacked by his supporters and destruction of the government property was on the rise.

On 15 December, fifty-eight days into his fast, Potti Sriramulu died. This incident in our history formed the bedrock for the states being balkanized according to their language. Two days after Sriramulu’s death the Prime Minister gave in and announced a separate state of Andra for the telgu speaking class. The creation of Andra Pradesh intensified the demands of other linguistic groups demanding separate states, the result being, India got divided in 28 states and 7 Union Territories.

It is in the back drop of this incident in history that I support the government’s view on official notification. What if tomorrow The Jats ask for a similar notification for their demand of quota? What if the Assamese demand the same for their secession from the Indian Union? Here I must mention that I am one of those crusaders who support Anna’s view on corruption and Lokpal Bill, but I am also convinced that we have got what we were demanding for. We will now have a drafting committee with representative from civil society with impeccable integrity. We are also assured that the drafted Bill will be presented in the parliament in the monsoon session itself. The people’s movement needs a new turn. If we hold on to our demands assuming that the government of the day will have to eventually bow down, we are not only wasting our energy but we may also give rise to problems which may haunt the future of our nation. While Initial public thrust was necessary, we must also realize that India shouldn’t become Egypt or Tunisia. It’s time we get on to the actual drafting of a strong and a robust Lokbal bill waiting to be implemented for the last 42 years. Let us all contribute in the process on nation building by weeding out corruption, incompetency and their ilks. Remember Lokpal Bill is just the beginning of the reforms we all were yearning for and not the culmination of that crusade.

In-your-face(book)

From Morocco to Yemen the Arab world is burning, and fueling this fire of change is the 21^st century panacea ‘The Social Networks’. These agents of change helped the Arab civilization achieve what they couldn’t, for decades, in just a few days or weeks. Be it Facebook, Twitter, Google or usual blogosphere, they have found themselves central to the action in an unprecedented way. Lets us take a look at how some of these new found tools have spurred the actions on the ground.

Facebook and Twitter – The cradle that rocked the despots

#Sidibouzid, this twitter hashtag gave rise to a movement which toppled not only the Ben Ali regime but also inspired a dozen other mutinies. The picture of Mohammed Bouazizi, the youth who set himself on fire in the Tunisian town ‘Sidi Bouzid’ in protest against the unemployment spread like wild fire on youtube and other social media. This was for the first time the internet spawned a feeling of enough is enough among the Tunisians.

Soon after Tunisia happened, Egypt was getting ready to herald in to the new dawn of democracy, the first salvo being “We are all Khaled Said” facebook page. Khaled Said was the young Egyptian man who was beaten to death by police in June 2010. The online activists began protest groups with Khaled as their ‘martyr’, some anonymous activist also came up with the Arabic version of the facebook page, who was later revealed as Google executive Wael Ghonim. #Jan25 made its presence felt on twitter, the day Wael called for young Egyptians to take to the streets. Twitter was abuzz with videos, pictures, data and links tagged with #jan25, which became an effective way to group together online information about the protest. The influence of social networking was such that, an Egyptian man named his newly born child as “facebook”. By now one thing was very clear, that the social networking websites have become a force to reckon with.

The events in Tunisia and Egypt inspired a whole lot of generation and Yemen was no different. The “Yemeni Anger Revolution” group has almost 20000 members on facebook, those who were not bitten by the social network bug were encouraged to pass on the word via traditional methods like SMS and cards. After the Yemeni government cracked down on internet, many nonresident Yemenis settled outside Yemen shared their contact numbers with their friends and relatives in Yemen in wake of internet shutdown, to help them share news about Yemen, many of NRYs tweeted and retweeted news and also links with the international media.

The hashtag #feb17 has categorized the Libyan movement and given a fresh identity to the Libyan protest amid unrest across the Arab world. Feb 17 is the date when the Libyan protest against the megalomaniac colonel began. Information – what little is accessible from the country – has been pouring in on Twitter and Youtube, where activists are uploading news the minute they are able to get online. A dedicated facebook page for the Libyan revolution has more than 82000 members and another key facebook page by the name of ‘RNN Libya’ has 22000 members. Libya being the most oppressed and closed nation of the region has caught the fever of Internet-driven dissent passed on from their friends in Tunisia and Egypt, as young Libyans are been exposed to the power of YouTube, Facebook, Twitter to voice opposition to the regime.

Just like the #feb17 Libyan protest, the Bahraini activists have #feb14 as their identity on twitter. Internet providers were shut down and facebook accounts were deleted across Algeria as thousands of Pro-democracy demonstrators were arrested in violent street demonstrations. President Abdelaziz Boutifleka’s government first cracked down on the internet to nip the protest in the bud.

In Morocco, the facebook group “Movement of freedom and democracy” has attracted more than 90000 members. The Iraqis had their own twitter tag as #iq4c but many of them tagged news of protest in Iraq with #feb25 so as to reach a larger audience of the internet by linking their cause with other popular revolts.

In Syria, the case is bit different; people are still learning about the arab revolution through facebook, media, twitter, newspapers and blogs. The facebook page “Syrian Revolution 2011” has received more than 25000 followers. People in Syria have slowly started to come out in open against the Syrian authorities.

Google: ‘Don’t be evil’

True to its slogan, Google as a company showed character in the Arab revolution when its CEO, Eric Schmidt said that he was ‘very proud’ of Wael Ghonim and the company has made it clear that it would welcome him back to his old job. Even when the Egyptian authorities cut off internet access, Google developed a workaround that allowed users to send twitter messages over phone lines. Youtube, which Google owns, also created a hub to promote videos from protestors in Tahir square.

As the crusade for democracy and basic human rights rages on, Today’s youth have a lot of tools at their disposal which the earlier crusaders didn’t posses. The Internet has become a conduit for disseminating the idea of democracy which was till now alien to the Arab civilization. For a change the Internet is applauded for its power to influence and change history for the better.

The Lost Games

With under 40 days to go for the biggest extravagant sporting event in this country, The Commonwealth Games. India has already lost it, going by the series of revelations & campaigning by the media, it seems more of a curse than a matter of pride. Everything from paper rolls to colossal stadias has come under the ire of media. If you go by the media every second person in this country is a rapist, a corrupt, a thief, a goon, a murderer in short a Criminal. My problem is not with their revelations about the inadequacies in the run up to the commonwealth games, my problem is with their timing for such a campaign. Almost the world will descend upon our national capital to be a part of history, will those guest (athiti) take away those paper rolls, chairs & umbrellas with them as a memory of games?? No, what they will take back is the warmth of Indian hospitality which the world has been indoctrinated since decades, they will take back the gesture of an ordinary Delhite to make space in their homes when all the hotels are packed. But sadly, the environment around doesn’t look like it will ever happen that way, The ordinary delhite following the series of negative campaigning by the media has started to disassociate himself from the games, I am not supporting Kalmadi & his team, if anybody guilty they should face the ramifications of their actions but only after we have wished our guests a nostalgic good bye. The Media needs to understand that this is the moment India was waiting for years, this is the moment where the world will see us through the prism of our ability & stature, It is this time that we cannot do away or shy away from the games because a handful of the people have used it for their benefit, Its time we all put our shoulders together & stage the best ever Commonwealth Games in the history of sports. And how can India do that??, we Indians do not need world class Infrastructure or ostentatious grandeur. What we need is to just be our self, and rally around in numbers supporting our games. Why can’t a Normal Delhite in his capacity buy tickets & sheer for Saina Nehwal when she bears the Indian Flag at the games, Can an ordinary delhite not support Gagan Narang at the shooting ranges, and why not an ordinary Indian along with his family think of a week holiday to Delhi to be a part of the National festival. Remember only stadiums & glassy roads won’t make it the best ever, we all have to contribute with media taking the baton in its own hand, Common we don’t want to hear the Lacks & Crores being looted, that is not something new, after few days nobody will give it a Damn whether it was 10 or 1000 Crores, what we want to hear is “Mehman aa rahe hai, Swagat kijiye”. This is Our Commonwealth Games & it’s high time the Media & we all realize that!

MNIK is Innocently Sincere!

The thing which i believe makes MNIK outstanding from other films is that this one got a soul of its own, very few films in India have a soul attached & MNIK is one of them, At first one may get a feeling that this film is a must watch for every Muslim but i beg to differ, i suppose this film is for every one who believes he has seen enough of life, When the character in the movie 'Rizwan Khan' chants his gospel from Quran using a rather unconventional stones & lands himself in the trouble with the authorities at the san francisco airport that conveys a very welknown fact abt just how ur language & religion which is of utmost awe to you becomes suspicious for others and very importanly MNIK tears apart you when u see them happening to a man which understands rarely abt life & world.

Rizwan Khan is some one who has very simple rules to lead life which will make many of us envy, for the matter of the fact that we all tend to make our life very complicated but here Rizwan has only 1 rule i.e. Good ppl & Bad ppl thats it. No other rules nor does he understand & nor he wants to follow. wish we too could have our life sorted to such an extend, He dosent understand why ppl make fun of him, he dosen't understand why his wife hates him, why ppl all over America hate him & to add to it he is even given to understand that the President of America hates him too. Inshort the Aspergers Syndrome (AS) which the character is affected with become his greatest strength.

The Most inspirational moment in the movie is when he is out to meet the president & has no money either to feed him or travel etc, he then poses with a placard reading 'Almost Repair Anything' , that is the moment which i believe we all can take home & remember for life, coz if a man who is not even 100% mentally & physically fit dosen't give up & fights for his survival believing that he will meet the most powerful man in the world then why we individuals blessed with every right thing frm god cry foul & loose hope in pursuing our own dreams?

Rizwan & MNIK teaches us that the less number of rules u have the less complicated ur life is.

Rizwan Khan is High on ethics & character, never lies, never cheats, never manipulates even when he is an underprivileged & knows he's not normal.

The film innocence is Rizwan Khan, he impishly demands what ever he believes be it sex too. thats the innocence of the character, the film is sincere coz it never losses its plot, it was determined to show us what it takes to be a Khan or Muslim from a person who is an Autistic.

The film reiterates the fact that may be ' All Terrorist are Muslim but not all Muslims are Terrorist'. MNIK if understood & empathized will leave you numb.